Archive

Apr
08
Business Cycle Watch #3 Indicators' divergence

Business Cycle Watch #3 Indicators' divergence

What was seemingly inevitable became real, the Treasury yield curve has inverted. Even though, almost all coincident US indicator signals
11 min read
Mar
31
The Good Side of Quantitative Tightening

The Good Side of Quantitative Tightening

Sucking reserves out of the system can be healthy and expansionary. I'm sure many will find this statement surprising and
7 min read
Mar
31
All about collateral and reserves

All about collateral and reserves

Financial media is obsessed with the Fed and everything they do or say, especially if it is labeled as "quantitative"
1 min read
Mar
06
Business Cycle Watch #2: Demand accelerates, supply-chain problems persist

Business Cycle Watch #2: Demand accelerates, supply-chain problems persist

Second month of 2022 may be the turning point of the global recovery. There are signs of a slowing pace
8 min read
Feb
27
B. Eichengreen (2019), Globalizing Capital

B. Eichengreen (2019), Globalizing Capital

Book notes.Comment: To me this book is the most comprehensive record of the history of the global monetary system.
23 min read
Feb
07
Business Cycle Watch #1: Rate hikes on the horizon despite a bleak long-term market prognosis

Business Cycle Watch #1: Rate hikes on the horizon despite a bleak long-term market prognosis

As we step into the second month of '22, markets and analysts get more and more confident in multiple Fed
8 min read
Feb
01
Transitory or Permanent? The roots of the post-pandemic inflation

Transitory or Permanent? The roots of the post-pandemic inflation

This is not the first time when we've got a heated debate over the causality of inflation. In fact, the
10 min read